May 16, 2012 -
Another video produced by Dick Morris landed in my inbox today which may be of interest to you. If he's right, Obama is facing a sizable defeat in November by a margin of 15 or 20 points. For those who consider that unlikely, please consider this; Dick has built a career in campaign polling and consulting. He's a smart guy who researches the likes of Rasmussen, Gallup and Public Policy Polling and then offers his own analysis and opinion. More often than not, he comes to the right conclusion and has a good track record with predicting presidential and congressional races. So I'm always interested in what he has to say.
In this particular case, however, I find this video even more compelling since it reinforces a feeling I've had for quite some time; that Obama will be defeated this November. Why? Because I believe that a statistically significant number of voters who chose Obama in 2008 are now embarrassed in their decision. And that embarrassment may preclude some from being honest today about their choice for president in 2012. If true, then many of the polling numbers that we've seen over the past 18 months may not be accurate.
Dick reinforces that assertion, but from a slightly different angle. His video explains how some of the polling methodologies being used by other companies do not really reflect likely, independent voters. They focus solely on registered voters. Statistical accuracy demands that the true population of likely voters be counted, much in the same way that the truly unemployed should be counted. Ignoring a segment of the population because they no longer appear on a government-maintained list can yield a significant margin of error. This leads Morris to conclude that Obama's polling numbers may actually be 10 to 15 points lower than what is being reported in the media.
So I invite you to take a look at Morris's video, then tell me what you think.
Obamas poll numbers get worse and worse by Dick Morris
5/16/2012 15:46:34 Paul Richards Agree? Yes
Good to get the blog today. Couldn't agree more. I postulate that given Bill's recent comments about Obama, there may be an underground effort, that if Obama's numbers stay this low or go lower, a Hillary for Pres movement may be seen at the Dem. convention. I don't see how, if it's clear that he's going to get clobbered, the convention can nominate him for a second term - that would be suicide for the party. Hillary has a following, has handled herself well as Secretary of State, and despite being a socialist and one world gov't proponent, she's personable, a female, would bring huge excitement to the election process and I think could give Romney a run for his money.
Just a thought.